China humanoid robots vs manufacturing workers: Job crisis?

• China’s manufacturing workers face uncertainty as humanoid robots receive $20+ bn investment.
• Beijing promises collaboration with workers, rather than replacement.
• Mass production targets of 10,000+ units by 2025 means change for China’s 123 million factory workers

China’s manufacturing heartland stands at a crossroads where metal and flesh compete for the same jobs. As Beijing pours over $20 billion into humanoid robots and promises manufacturing workers will complement rather than compete with these machines, a fundamental question emerges: can 123 million factory workers trust official assurances when the economics point toward wholesale transformation?

The contradictions are stark. Government officials speak of collaboration and harmony, yet the numbers tell a different story. Production targets of 10,000+ humanoid units by 2025, cost projections that could halve robot prices in a year, and China’s already aggressive automation trajectory suggest a future where human workers may find themselves obsolete rather than augmented.

When President Xi Jinping inspected humanoid robots in Shanghai last month, the message was that this technology represents a national priority. But is it one that transcends individual employment concerns?

The scale of transformation

The numbers behind China’s humanoid robot ambitions are high. More than $20 billion has been allocated to the sector over the past year, and Beijing is establishing a one trillion yuan ($137 billion) fund to support startups in areas like AI and robotics.

The investment dwarfs most national technology initiatives and suggests authorities view humanoid robotics as essential to maintaining China’s manufacturing dominance.

Production targets are equally ambitious. Six out of 11 domestic humanoid robot makers plan to manufacture more than a thousand units this year, such as Shanghai-based startup Agibot which said it will produce as many as 5,000 humanoids by the end of this year, a sharp increase from the 731 it made, January 2025.

For context, this places China ahead of international competitors, with analysts warning that US firms could lose out to China, which aims to replicate its success with electric vehicles in the nascent robotics space.

The official narrative: Complementary, not competitive

Chinese officials have moved quickly to address growing concerns about job displacement. Liang Liang, a deputy director at the Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area, said in an interview on Friday with Reuters that he does not believe that humanoid robots will replace their human creators, but are designed to boost productivity and operate in hazardous environments.

Liang’s metaphor is instructive: “You see, in the marathon, humans have their track where they push their physical limits, and the machines have their track […] but they aren’t trying to take over the human course to sprint to the finish line. The future will be like this too.”

The vision presents humanoid robots as collaborative partners rather than replacements, working alongside humans in complementary roles. The official messaging emphasises expansion into dangerous or undesirable work.

“We don’t believe robots will make people unemployed, but rather they’ll boost efficiency or take on tasks humans are unwilling to do – like exploring the vast universe or the ocean depths where people can’t go,” Liang said.

The economic reality behind the rhetoric

However, the economic fundamentals driving China’s humanoid robot push suggest a more complex reality. China has 12½ times more robots in its workforce than was previously predicted, according to the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF)an independent think tank in Washington.

That number is an indication that Chinese workers are being replaced by robots at the fastest rate in the world. The dramatic automation surge predates the current humanoid robot initiative and indicates established patterns of technological displacement.

The demographic pressures are undeniable in the country. China’s working-age population – defined in the country as those between 16 and 59 – fell to 875.6 million in 2022 from 896.4 million in 2019, while its population aged above 65 rose to 209.78 million last year from 176 million in 2019.

Those trends create compelling economic logic for automation, regardless of official assurances about job preservation. Manufacturing economics provides additional context. The average bill of materials for a humanoid will be about $35,000 by the end of this year but could fall to $17,000 by 2030 if most of it is sourced from China, according to Bank of America Securities research.

Three Chinese humanoid manufacturers told Reuters they predicted a similar halving of costs, perhaps within the year. Such cost reductions would make humanoid robots increasingly attractive alternatives to human workers, particularly in labour-intensive manufacturing processes.

China’s structural advantages

China’s dominance in humanoid robot hardware provides competitive advantages. The country is capable of making up to 90% of humanoid components, lowering barriers to entry, according to industry experts. Control of supply chains enables rapid iteration and cost reduction, factors that international competitors struggle to match.

The efficiency of China’s industrial ecosystem further accelerates development. “If you have a requirement in the morning, suppliers might come to your company with materials or products by the afternoon, or you can go directly to their site to see for yourself,” Zhang Miao, chief operating officer of Beijing-based startup CASBOT told Reuters.

Data collection capabilities represent another crucial advantage. Shanghai authorities assisted in setting up AgiBot’s data collection site, providing premises rent-free where about 100 robots operated by 200 humans work every day. The government-industry collaboration to gather training data gives Chinese companies significant advantages in developing practical applications.

Real-world applications signal broader intent

Beyond official rhetoric, actual deployment patterns reveal the technology’s trajectory. MagicLab has integrated its robots with AI models like DeepSeek, Alibaba’s Qwen, and ByteDance’s Doubao, and has begun deploying prototypes in production lines for tasks like quality inspection, material handling, and assembly.

According to Chinese state media, EV makers like BYD and Geely have already deployed some of Unitree’s humanoid robots at their factories. The early applications focus precisely on tasks currently performed by manufacturing workers, suggesting the technology’s practical impact will extend beyond hazardous or undesirable work.

The investment reality check

The scale of investment flowing into humanoid robotics contradicts narratives of limited displacement. Chinese electric vehicle maker Xpeng sees humanoid robots as a long-term project and is considering large investments as high as 100 billion yuan ($13.80 billion). Such commitments suggest expectations of substantial returns through labour cost reduction, not merely the supplementing of human workers.

China’s EAI market is projected to grow from RMB 863.4 billion ($118.96 billion) in 2024 to RMB 973.1 billion ($134.1 billion) in 2025, indicating rapid commercial expansion that would be impossible without significant displacement of existing processes and workers.

A balanced assessment

The question of whether China’s humanoid robots manufacturing workers be displaced cannot be answered definitively through interpretation of official statements. While government officials emphasise collaboration and complement, the economic logic driving massive investments suggests more substantial transformation ahead.

Some 123 million people work in manufacturing in China; State media has suggested that as with previous industrial revolutions, long-term job creation would outweigh short-term pain. Historical precedent supports this optimistic view – previous technological revolutions ultimately created more jobs than they eliminated.

However, the transition periods involved significant disruption and required substantial retraining and economic adjustment. The reality likely lies between the extremes of wholesale replacement and seamless integration.

Humanoid robots will probably assume many routine manufacturing tasks currently performed by human workers and create new categories of work related to robot operation, maintenance, and coordination.

The net employment impact will depend on the pace of deployment, the effectiveness of retraining programs, and the broader economy’s capacity to generate alternative employment.

For China’s 123 million manufacturing workers, the humanoid robot revolution represents both challenge and opportunity. The technology promises to maintain China’s manufacturing competitiveness at a time of demographic decline and rising labour costs.

Whether a transformation ultimately benefits or displaces workers will depend on policy choices made in Beijing and on the factory floors of the country in the coming decade.

The marathon metaphor offered by Chinese officials may prove truthful – but the question remains whether humans and robots will truly run on parallel tracks, or whether the finish lines will ultimately converge in ways that fundamentally reshape China’s industrial workforce.