NBA Draft Combine intel: AJ Dybantsa-to-Washington isn’t viewed as the lock everyone assumed

CHICAGO — When the NBA Draft Lottery revealed the order on Sunday afternoon, the mock drafts of every major media outlet and draft expert looked virtually the same. The Washington Wizards would select AJ Dybantsa at No. 1, the Utah Jazz would follow with Darryn Peterson at No. 2, the Memphis Grizzlies would snag Cameron Boozer at No 3 and the Chicago Bulls would take the next best available and pick Caleb Wilson at No. 4. Then the point guards would begin to go off the board.

But we are uncovering contrarian opinions over the course of the last 48 hours at the NBA Draft Combine, when the front offices of all 30 NBA teamsplayers, agents, and media are essentially clustered in the same gym and hotel for the entirety of the day.

First, as it relates to Washington, I asked a high-ranking scout on one of the other lottery teams if they considered Washington’s selection of Dybantsa a certainty and if that would impact their own preparation. I got a more direct response than I expected.

“Absolutely not,” the scout told CBS Sports. “We were surprised the broadcast made it seem like such a foregone conclusion.”

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Dybantsa’s own comments on lottery night added a little more intrigue to the scenario at the top of the draft. The BYU star implied that he was open to working out for more than one team (two to be exact).

That comment by Dybantsa was also consistent with one of the most repeated pieces of intel floating around Chicago this week: that Dybantsa was reportedly hoping to stay in Utah.

He’s been in Utah now for two years (one season at Utah Prep and one season in Provo at BYU). His family is now with him in Utah, and they’ve grown to like the state and were hoping to stay.

Now that has led some to wonder whether we could see some “workout shenanigans” where Dybantsa could potentially refuse to work out for Washington in hopes of forcing his way to Utah. The Wizards themselves have been very willing to utilize that strategy themselves in recent years with both Alex Sarr and, ironically Ace Bailey, who is of course now in Utah.

Any potential trade talk of a 1-2 swap would likely have to be ignited by Dybantsa’s camp. Most in Chicago consider it less likely that Utah would reach out to Washington proactively. But by the end of the day Tuesday, those whispers had quieted down a bit, as Dybantsa’s camp had reportedly indicated to some they weren’t interested in playing that game, despite their preference to end up in Utah.

If that’s the case, then Dybantsa still probably (not definitely) ends up in Washington, even if there is a workout in Utah beforehand to fuel speculation.

What will happen at No. 2?

So what will the Jazz do at No. 2, especially considering Cameron Boozer’s dad, Carlos Boozer, currently works for the organization in a scouting role? Most expect Kansas guard Darryn Peterson to be the Jazz’s pick here. While there’s more public speculation about other options, sources around the combine speak with almost the same level of confidence that Peterson goes No. 2 as they do Washington taking Dybantsa at No. 1.

Peterson is not only a good fit for Utah’s current roster, but some people, including myself, wonder if some inside the Jazz front office might consider him to be a superior talent. The Ainges, Danny and Austin, have long been known to follow the top prospects in high school basketball, and so they are undoubtedly aware of what Peterson’s game and reputation were before this year’s availability issues.

What factors, beyond Dybantsa unexpectedly being available, could sway this? While initial interviews and medicals with Peterson will be done here in Chicago, the expectation is that Utah may not start hosting potential prospects at their facility until after Memorial Day. Those site visits are where every organization starts to dig deeper, both with the medical and the interview, and any other testing they do on-site. If those inquiries reveal something more concerning, then there could be ripple effects, but at this point, the early expectations are that Utah would be very happy with Peterson and thus able to operate on two time tables simultaneously. The core of Lauri Markanen, Jaren Jackson, and Keyonte George would propel them back into the playoff picture for next season, while Peterson and Ace Bailey would give them two long-term assets that create a pathway to a second iteration down the road.

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Memphis has a real decision to make at No. 3?

That means Memphis will be on the clock at No. 3 to decide between Boozer and Wilson. This is a decision that remains a true mystery.

I wrote last weekbefore lottery results were determined, that I thought Memphis was a team that could value Wilson more than most. That was based not only on their recent draft history, but also on some intel I had heard behind the scenes. Simultaneously, my own opinion is that Boozer should not only be the pick here at No. 3, but someone that both Utah and Washington should consider. I think Boozer’s overlap of physicality, skill, and feel, supplemented by his competitive nature, fits what Memphis prioritizes. In other words, I, and most others in Chicago, legitimately don’t know what Memphis will do here.

Chicago may be the team with the easiest pick in the draft. They just take whichever of these top four prospects is still on the board. Bryson Graham has just arrived as the franchise’s new Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations, so he’ll probably do his due diligence on all the point guards as well. They’d all presumably be happy to return to Chicago to work out for a team with a top four pick, but at the end of the day, the expectation is the Bulls end up with whichever of Peterson, Boozer, and Wilson remains on the board.

The fear of missing out on a generational talent

Collectively, there is one theme atop this draft that has been whispered about in recent months and reiterated here in Chicago this week – there’s real apprehension to get it wrong. One scout whose team does not pick in the top four said he’d “be terrified to miss” on Dybantsa or Peterson. There is real fear of passing on either of them and then seeing that player live up to their massive potential and become a generational talent. That’s the type of decision that could ultimately cost an executive his job, or certainly make his seat a little hotter.

Similarly, you don’t want to be the decision-maker who ends up being viewed as the one who missed on the star hiding in plain sight with Boozer. It’s very clear at this point that Boozer is a consistent, smart player with an extremely high floor who has won at every level of basketball. What if Dybantsa ends up being a high-volume scorer who can’t drive winning? What if Peterson ends up having lingering durability or athletic concerns? Those are considerations and fears that people are saying out loud this week in Chicago and keeping GMs up at night.