NBA rumors: The biggest offseason question for every Western Conference team

In a way, the Eastern and Western Conferences have switched places. For most of the past few decades, the West was enormously deep. The East almost always had one or two juggernauts at the top — the Pistons in the mid-2000s, the Celtics afterward, whichever team LeBron James played for, and then the Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown Celtics afterward — with questions underneath them.

The current West is certainly deeper than the old East, but the basic structure applies here. The Thunder and Spurs are miles ahead of the field. Oklahoma City didn’t lose a Western Conference playoff game until the conference finals. The Spurs lost one game that Victor Wembanyama finished, and Julian Champagnie missed a game-winner at the buzzer in that defeat. They are among the youngest teams in the West, certainly the most talented, and with deep reserves of draft picks at their disposal, more capable of tweaking their roster in whatever manner they choose than anyone else here.

So as we dive into the biggest questions facing each Western Conference team this offseason, keep that basic structure in mind. We have 13 teams trying to figure out how to keep up with the juggernauts, and two leaders plotting to destroy each other.

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Thunder: What are their final cost-cutting maneuvers?

Oklahoma City started this offseason around $40 million above the second apron. They’ve thus far made their two obvious moves to trim payroll: turning Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe into second-round picks, and, on Friday, reworking the contract of starting center Isaiah Hartenstein by locking him up for $75 million over three years. If they structure Hartenstein’s deal with as little money up front as possible, they’re now a bit less than $13 million away from that second apron line.

So where’s the endpoint? Are the Thunder committed to ducking below the line entirely? Or do they just need to get close? If they trade Luguentz Dort or decline his team option, they’re below the line entirely. They could perhaps renegotiate his deal, as they did with Hartenstein’s, to creep closer to that line, and then try to duck it entirely through smaller moves. Kenrich Williams has a $7.2 million team option that is probably a bit too rich for Oklahoma City’s blood right now. Thomas Sorber has seemingly been usurped as Oklahoma City’s developmental big man by Aday Mara, and perhaps Bennett Stirtz has done the same to Nikola Topić. Replacing their cap figures with minimum deals is another path to savings. The Thunder are off to a great start here, but they’re not quite done saving money.

Spurs: Is there a De’Aaron Fox trade market?

All the reporting thus far suggests the Spurs are not looking to move De’Aaron Fox. That they view him as an essential offensive organizer and want him around, even with Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle ascending above him. Is that how they really feel, or is it the message they need to put out to avoid looking desperate? Fox is about to begin a four-year max extension and it’s not clear how much longer he’ll even be one of San Antonio’s two best guards. Harper is, frankly, too good to come off the bench, even for the team that once employed Manu Ginobili.

The problem the Spurs would encounter if they want to move Fox is how few seats are left in this summer’s game of point guard musical chairs. Minnesota grabbed LaMelo Ball. Charlotte replaced him internally with Coby White. Four teams drafted point guards in the middle of the lottery. Miami spent its financial flexibility on Giannis Antetokounmpo. There just aren’t that many teams looking for point guards right now. Memphis is living through this with Ja Morant, who we’ll get to shortly. If nothing else, those rumors of Kawhi Leonard potentially being interested in a San Antonio reunion likely depend on San Antonio finding a Fox taker so they can afford a Leonard extension when their youngsters start getting expensive. There’s no indication that the Spurs want to go in that direction, but it signals just how hamstrung they are by that contract. It will be extremely difficult for them to take any more big trade swings until his situation is resolved.

De’Aaron Fox was an NBA Finals flop, but he remains a luxury the Spurs can afford to keep

Brad Botkin

Nuggets: How can they keep Peyton Watson?

The Nuggets are at the second apron as is. They can duck below it by waiving the non-guaranteed portion of Jonas Valančiūnas’ contract, but that would leave them with minimal room, no backup center and only nine players under contract. Oh, and they’re trying to re-sign key restricted free agent Peyton Watson, their best hope at developing a young, two-way wing.

Re-signing Watson at his expected market could take the Nuggets well above the second apron and trigger a nine-figure luxury tax bill. That’s why the assumption has long been that they find a way to dump a contract like Cameron Johnson or Christian Braun. Is there a world in which they can keep both? Maybe they squeeze Watson in restricted free agency, find a taker for Zeke Nnaji and get by with minimums on the bench. Either way, Denver is going to wind up cutting some corners here. After their first-round exit, it’s hard to imagine ownership green-lighting one of the biggest tax bills in NBA history.

Lakers: Who’s playing center and what does that mean for LeBron?

The obvious starting point would be LeBron James, arguably the greatest player of all time. He is headed for free agency, but according to Jake Fischer, finding a big man, not retaining James, seems to be the top priority in Lakerland. When James was a free agent in the past, the entire league stopped to await his decision. But he’s 41 now, no longer the same player he was even a few seasons ago. He’s got a year or two left in the NBA at most. Luka Dončić has made it clear he wants the Lakers to add an “A-List center,” according to ESPN, and with only two years left on his contract, they have little choice but to oblige Dončić. 

They thought they’d found their big man when they traded for Mark Williams. A failed physical killed that deal, and they’ve been lost ever since. Deandre Ayton wasn’t the solution last year, and if he picks up his $8.1 million player option, the Lakers will likely either trade him or pair him with another pricey big man in their rotation.

Every center under the sun is a potential target. Could they throw a giant offer sheet at Jalen Duren or Walker Kessler and dare their original teams to match? Will they look to spend a more modest price and try to pry Mitchell Robinson away from the Knicks? Maybe it’s a trade. The Lakers have been interested in Myles Turner for years, and considering the poor season he just had, the rebuilding Bucks probably wouldn’t ask for much. 

The Lakers have to settle this one way or another this offseason. Dončić is not going to wait around for them to build him a team forever. But all of this will invariably affect James because how much the Lakers can pay him likely depends on how much they’re spending at center. Someone like Robinson is obviously going to be more affordable than someone like Kessler. For now, it’s not even clear what the Lakers can offer James next season.

Rockets: Is their franchise player on the roster?

The Rockets essentially wasted last season. They couldn’t compete without a point guard, but they made no efforts to replace Fred VanVleet externally, and once Steven Adams went down, their massive rebounding edge shrank significantly. Now it seems like they’re mostly planning to just run back last year’s team and see what they would have been if healthy. That’s not crazy, because they still don’t really know what they have.

Alperen Sengun has been an All-Star. Can he be an All-NBA player? Amen Thompson is eligible for his rookie extension. What exactly is the going rate for an All-Universe defender and rebounder who neither shoots jumpers nor really creates many of his own shots? The Rockets are the rare asset-rich, 50-win team that still isn’t sure who their franchise player is. Kevin Durant is the best player on the team today. Within the next year or two, they need to know whether they can contend after he’s gone or if they’ll need to start packaging picks for someone better than they currently have.

Timberwolves: Can they get a power forward?

The Timberwolves addressed their long-lingering hole at point guard when they traded for LaMelo Ball, but in the process, they moved both of their power forwards, Naz Reid and Julius Randle. Now, they’ve traded in one major hole for another, but with basically no draft assets left at their disposal, actually addressing power forward will be no easy task. The Timberwolves have only around $8 million in second apron room right now. That’s where they’re hard-capped, and they need to fill at least three more roster spots.

They are reportedly hoping to keep Donte DiVincenzo as he recovers from a torn Achilles. That means their path here probably involves rerouting Josh Green’s expiring contract in this deal, and perhaps using young wing Terrence Shannon Jr. in place of draft capital to entice someone into dealing. Still, that’s not even $17 million in outgoing salary, and it relies on someone wanting Shannon, so director of basketball operations Tim Connelly has his work cut out for him here. When push comes to shove, he might need to dangle DiVincenzo’s salary just to create a manageable amount of outgoing money.

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Blazers: Can they clear space to renegotiate Deni Avdija in 2027?

The Blazers have been linked to several big names this offseason, ranging from Giannis Antetokounmpo to Jaylen Brown. Portland seems primed to go big-game hunting with Damian Lillard returning to a team that is coming off a promising season, but keeping their incumbent star happy means just as much as giving him a running mate.

Deni Avdija is coming off an All-NBA season. He is also playing on the best contract in the NBA. The four-year, $55 million extension he signed as a member of the Wizards in 2023 is so cheap that it is functionally unextendable. If Portland wants to lock him up long-term next summer, it probably needs to create cap space in the summer of 2027. That will allow the Blazers to renegotiate his contract and extend him at a more reasonable number. This is the challenge the Blazers are facing this offseason. They have to simultaneously improve and save money, because if they don’t lock Avdija up next summer, he’ll become an enormously coveted free agent in 2028.

Suns: Does ducking the luxury tax matter?

The Suns went from above the second apron to below the luxury tax last offseason when they waived and stretched Bradley Beal. The idea at the time seemed to be to stay below the tax last season and next season in order to reset their repeater clock. They did so last year, but after re-signing Mark Williams, Jordan Goodwin and Collin Gillespie, they’re not close to doing so this year. The Suns for now are more than $16 million above the tax line and only $4 million or so below the second apron.

The Suns have two tradable first-round picks if they want to try to save money. The least favorable of Cleveland, Minnesota and Utah’s 2027 picks won’t get them far, but their own 2033 pick certainly could. Of course, doing so would delay the possibility of a true rebuild even further, so it has to be a last resort. It’s Mat Ishbia’s money. If he’s willing to pay the repeater tax, more power to him. But few owners are eager to do so, which makes the Suns a potential cost-cutter to watch.

Clippers: What’s going to happen to Kawhi Leonard?

The Kawhi Leonard situation is messy on several fronts. We don’t know what the NBA’s Aspiration investigation will find or when those findings will be revealed. We assume that Leonard would like to extend his contract. We don’t know how eager the Clippers are to do so, or if they’re even able while the Aspiration investigation is ongoing. We watched the Clippers initiate a youth movement at the trade deadline by moving Ivica Zubac and James Harden and assumed Leonard no longer fit into their plans. Reports have indicated that Clippers owner Steve Ballmer prefers to keep him.

Leonard could stay with the Clippers, with or without an extension. His contract could be voided. He could be traded, and that’s probably the best outcome for everyone here… except Leonard is reportedly only willing to extend with his two former teams, the Spurs and Raptors. It’s hard to imagine the Spurs going for him if they can’t move Fox, and the point guard-heavy Clippers aren’t taking him. Toronto seems interested, but getting the Clippers to take on some of their bad money won’t be easy. Maybe another team sneaks into the mix and convinces Leonard to extend. Maybe Leonard and the Clippers are bound together through the Aspiration investigation and possibly afterward. 

Kawhi Leonard trade rumors: Would it be possible for the Spurs or Raptors to bring back the Clippers star?

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Warriors: Is there a star move here?

The Warriors haven’t been shy about wanting to take a star swing while Stephen Curry is still close to his prime. Thus far, they haven’t connected. Draft night came and went without a deal involving the No. 11 pick. Leonard was frequently linked to them, but the reporting thus far suggests he doesn’t want to extend in Golden State. Re-signing Al Horford took the Warriors close enough to the first apron that if they indeed plan to keep Kristaps Porziņģis, they’re going to have a hard time carving out a full mid-level exception for LeBron James. Draymond Green’s player option will be instructive on that front. If he takes a pay cut, that could indicate that they’ve got something cooking.

Still, the Warriors have already missed on Giannis Antetokounmpo, and they have to give some consideration to what happens after Curry. If the right move isn’t there, it isn’t there. The longer they go without one, the likelier it seems that they will simply hold onto Jimmy Butler and hope he can return at something resembling full strength in the middle of the season.

Pelicans: Will someone meet the asking price on their wings?

The NBA’s wing deficit is well known, and the Pelicans have two very desirable wings on team-friendly contracts in Trey Murphy III and Herbert Jones. They’re not letting either of them go cheap. The reported asking price for Murphy is three first-round picks. Jones won’t fetch that much, but at least one and potentially two picks are probably going to be necessary there.

New Orleans doesn’t have to trade either. They’re both locked in for multiple seasons. Murphy is 26 and Jones is 27. It’s not inconceivable that either sticks around long enough to see this New Orleans rebuild through and be a part of the next genuinely competitive Pelicans team. But given how much league-wide interest there is in both and given how far away the Pelicans are, they have to at least listen. Moving one or both could give them an enormous long-term asset advantage in an already loaded Western Conference.

Mavericks: Trade Kyrie now, or let him reestablish his value?

Cooper Flagg is 20 and Kyrie Irving is 34. The Mavericks don’t control their own first-round pick again until 2031. One way or another, the Mavericks really do need to try to get value back for Irving. By the time Flagg is ready to compete for championships, Irving’s window to do so will probably be over. The question now is more of a “when” than an “if.”

Irving didn’t play last season. He’d likely generate positive value in a trade today, but not too much of it. If the Mavericks bring him back next season, he’ll have a chance to reestablish star-level value, even if it’s aging-star-level value. The risk on the other side of that equation is that he might not be the same player following that torn ACL. It’s a matter of risk and reward. Would you rather get something now or risk getting nothing later to give yourself a chance at something more substantial?

Grizzlies: Is there a Ja Morant taker left?

Everything we covered relating to Fox’s market applies to Morant’s. Who wants a point guard now? It seems like the Timberwolves and Kings are out of that market. It’s not clear how involved the Pelicans ever were. Maybe the Bucks would be open-minded as they kick off their rebuild. The Suns might at least offer a matching salary. It’s not a long list. The reporting for now suggests that teams are telling the Grizzlies they’d need to attach draft capital to move Morant.

Would either side consider a buyout? That might be their best bet right now. Could Morant get the mid-level exception on the open market? Players loathe buyouts because they not only cost them Bird Rights, but reset their reputations at a new, lower price point. Maybe getting to the right situation would be worth it for Morant given how far his star has fallen. And while the Grizzlies would probably prefer getting off of his contract entirely, saving a portion of it might be the best they can do.

Kings: How far will they go to save money?

The Kings are currently $16 million over the luxury tax line. I don’t think I need to explain why the Kings aren’t good enough to justify paying the tax this season, so odds are, there will be some cost-cutting here. Ideally, they would trade DeMar DeRozan and get off of his contract completely. More likely, they’ll have to waive him. Only $10 million of his deal is guaranteed, so waiving him essentially gets the Kings to the tax line. Of course, if they want to add salary, they’ll have to go further.

Zach LaVine will, to no one’s surprise, pick up his $49 million player option. Might he be a buyout candidate after that? He’d surely have offers in the mid-level range after hitting the market, so that might make sense for both parties. There were Domantas Sabonis rumors at the trade deadline, and interested parties may revisit that idea now that the offseason is in full swing. There aren’t many untouchables here. This is going to be a teardown in Sacramento.

Jazz: Is there a walk-away price on Walker Kessler?

The Jazz reportedly offered stalwart defensive center Walker Kessler $140 million over five years. By all accounts, he wants more. The Lakers have been linked to Kessler for years. Is there a number they could offer that would convince Utah not to match such an offer sheet? Remember, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Lauri Markkanen are both on max contracts, and Keyonte George is eligible for a rookie extension this offseason. Utah is about to get expensive.

The Lakers, and any other potential suitors, are well aware of this. They can try to use that reality to scare the Jazz into signing and trading Kessler to them at a more reasonable price, though Jazz CEO Danny Ainge isn’t known for losing games of chicken. If someone is going to steal him, it might take an offer sheet so over-the-top irresponsible that the Jazz can’t justify matching it. Maybe Kessler thinks such an offer sheet is out there for him if he’s not interested in a $140 million pact. Restricted free agency is a game of extremes. Most players lose money because potential suitors don’t want to tie up cap space on an offer that might be matched. A few get more than they probably should as a scare tactic against incumbent teams. If Kessler is leaving the Jazz, it’s probably because he’s the latter.