Spurs vs. Knicks: The three biggest questions that will decide the NBA Finals

The 2026 NBA Finals are set, and it’s time to party like it’s 1999. The San Antonio Spurs knocked out the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals to advance to the Finals for the first time since 2014, where they’ll meet the New York Knicks, who rampaged through the Eastern Conference.

Back in 1999, the last time the Knicks were in the Finals, they lost in five games to the Spurs. That was the first of five titles in the next 15 years for Tim Duncan and Co. Now, there’s a new generational big man in San Antonio: Victor Wembanyama. The 22-year-old Frenchman is the youngest player in NBA history to make the All-NBA First Team and NBA Finals in the same season.

Will Wembanyama complete his historic first playoff run with a title? Or will Jalen Brunson and the Knicks continue their dominance and bring a championship to Madison Square Garden for the first time since 1973?

Ahead of Game 1 on Wednesdaylet’s look at three big questions that will decide the 2026 Finals.

What will the Knicks get out of Mitchell Robinson?

Early on Thursday evening, just before Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals, news broke that Knicks big man Mitchell Robinson had suffered a broken pinky on his right hand. Robinson has since undergone surgerybut the team is hopeful he’ll be able to suit up in the Finals, per The Athletic.

Game 1 is set for Wednesday, and the series is spread out over 17 days if it goes the distance, so there will be more time than usual for him to rest and rehab between games.

It’s still unclear how Robinson broke his finger. Knicks coach Mike Brown said Friday that it did not happen during a game or practice, but when pressed for further details, the team’s PR staff interjected, saying the team would not “get into specifics.” In any case, the injury is a big blow to the Knicks’ hopes of winning their first title in more than 50 years.

Knicks’ Mitchell Robinson hopes to play in Game 1 of NBA Finals after undergoing pinky surgery

Jack Maloney

Robinson doesn’t put up big numbers — he’s averaging 5.5 points and 5.3 rebounds during the playoffs — but he’s one of the best offensive rebounders in the league and a big, physical presence in the paint on both ends of the floor.

Per databallr, the Knicks’ offensive rebounding rate with Robinson on the floor in the playoffs is 39.4%, and drops to 28.6% when he sits (garbage time excluded). Robinson is a big reason the Knicks lead all teams in the postseason with 17.7 second-chance points per game, and his ability to create extra possessions will be crucial against an elite Spurs defense.

Plus, Robinson is the Knicks’ only reliable big man off the bench. Second-year center Ariel Hukporti is the only other true center on the roster, and he’s appeared in just 79 career games. His 70 minutes this postseason have come almost entirely in garbage time. While he is at least a big body — 7-foot, 240 pounds — the Knicks would prefer not to throw him into the fire against Wembanyama and the Spurs. But if Robinson can’t go, they’ll have to turn to Hukporti, at least for small stints when Karl-Anthony Towns needs a rest.

If Robinson is unable to go, it would completely change the series. But even if he does suit up, he’s not going to be his usual self with a broken pinky. Will he still be able to grab rebounds in the same way? Will he be as aggressive defensively? If the Spurs use the “hack-a-Shaq” strategy, will he have any chance at the free-throw line?

What the Knicks get out of Robinson will be a key storyline to watch over the next few weeks.

Can the Knicks remain red hot from downtown?

With less than a minute to play in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals, the Thunder were down by six and desperately needed to score. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander drove to the basket and seemed to have an open lane ahead of him, until Wembanyama slid over. Even though Wembanyama had five fouls, and the Thunder were running out of time, Gilgeous-Alexander turned, hung in the air and flung a pass out to the top of the key.

No one in the league influences opposing offenses more than the 7-foot-4 Wembanyama, the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year in NBA history. Take a look at these postseason numbers, via databallr, which show how opponents’ shot diets completely change when he’s on the floor.

Note: Opponent rim rate is the percentage of shots opponents take at the rim and opponent 3-point rate is the percentage of shots opponents take from 3-point range.

Easy baskets at the rim disappear against Wembanyama and the Spurs — the Thunder shot 75.6% in the restricted area in the first two rounds of the playoffs and 54.4% there in the Western Conference Finals — which is particularly noteworthy for a Knicks team that has been dominating in the paint this postseason.

The Knicks lead all playoff teams in shots per game in the restricted area (29.6) and are shooting 68.1% when they get there. They’re also first among playoff teams in points in the paint per game (53.3) and fifth in free-throw rate (0.307). As great as the Knicks are offensively, they aren’t going to have that level of success around the basket with Wembanyama around.

In order for the Knicks to win the title, they’re going to have to shoot the ball well from 3-point range. Luckily for them, they also excel away from the basket. The Knicks have made at least 10 3s in 12 of their 14 playoff games, and are shooting 40% from downtown in the playoffs, which leads all teams. That’s not a complete fluke, either; during the regular season, they were fourth in the league at 37.3%.

The Knicks’ 3-point success has been a team effort. They have seven players taking at least two 3s per game in the playoffs, and Josh Hart is the only one not shooting at least 34%.

The Knicks are an incredible offensive team with a lot of shooting talent, but can they keep shooting this well against the Spurs’ elite defense? They might have to if they want to pull off the upset.

What does Wembanyama have in store for his first Finals?

This time a year ago, Wembanyama was recovering from a blood clot in his right shoulder that prematurely ended his sophomore season after 46 games. Now fully healthy, Wembanyama has led the Spurs to the Finals in his first playoff run at just 22.

Along the way, Wembanyama has delivered some incredible performances.

In Game 1 of the first round against the Portland Trail Blazers, his first playoff game ever, he poured in 35 points. He registered a triple-double with blocks in Game 1 of the second round against the Minnesota Timberwolves and put up 39 points, 15 and five blocks in Game 3 of that series. His historic 41-point, 24-rebound outing in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals against the Thunder was one of the finest playoff performances everand he had a 33-point, eight-rebound, five-assist, three-block effort in Game 4 after the Spurs had fallen down 2-1.

Victor Wembanyama’s ‘greatest of all time’ trajectory is officially ahead of schedule after Spurs’ Game 7 win

Sam Quinn

Everyone wants to win, but few obsess over it like Wembanyama, who was emotional after the Spurs’ Game 7 victory on Saturday.

“Winning the Larry O’Brien is a childhood dream and having a real shot at it, having a chance, a tangible chance at winning it, realizing a dream, it’s a lifetime chance,” Wembanyama said. “You never know what’s going to happen again. The day we win it, it’s going to be an amazing day of realization of a dream. It’s almost like the meaning of my life.”

To make his dream a reality, Wembanyama will need at least a few more brilliant individual nights. The Spurs have a deep team, but he is their best player on both sides of the ball, and they go as he goes.

For the playoffs, Wembanyama is averaging 23.2 points, 10.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 3.5 blocks on 51/37/87 shooting splits. He leads the Spurs in scoring, rebounding and blocks, and among all players is second in rebounding and first in blocks. The Spurs are 7-1 when he scores at least 25 points and 4-5 when he does not, including Game 3 of the first round when he sat out with a concussion. And in his 510 minutes, the Spurs have a plus-17.2 net rating, compared to a plus-0.2 net rating in the 316 minutes he’s sat.

Wembanyama has not been phased by the bright lights thus far, and, for what it’s worth, averaged 28 points, 13 rebounds and 2.5 blocks on 62.1% shooting against the Knicks this season. But the Finals will be a different level of pressure, particularly the road games at Madison Square Garden.

Can he rise to the occasion again?