Timberwolves vs. Mavericks odds, prediction: 2024 NBA Western Conference finals Game 1 picks by proven model

The Minnesota Timberwolves will continue their quest toward perhaps their first-ever NBA Finals berth on Wednesday when they host the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 of the 2024 Western Conference Finals. The 3-seeded Wolves are coming off one of the more entertaining NBA playoff series in recent memory. They overcame a 3-2 series deficit against the defending champion Nuggets with a 98-90 Game 7 road victory that included a playoff record comeback from a 20-point deficit. The No. 5-seeded Mavs overcame a 17-point deficit of their own to topple the top-seeded Thunder 117-116 in Game 6 and advance to the conference finals. Mike Conley (calf) is listed as questionable for Minnesota.

Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. from the Target Center in Minneapolis. Minnesota is a 4.5-point favorite, and the over/under for total points scored is 207 in the latest Timberwolves vs. Mavericks odds, per SportsLine consensus. Before locking in any Mavericks vs. Timberwolves picks for Game 1 of the 2024 Western Conference finals, make sure you see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven SportsLine Projection model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model entered the conference semifinals in the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 94-61 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following the model has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on Mavs vs. Timberwolves in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals and locked in its 2024 NBA playoff predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Timberwolves vs. Mavs:

• Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: Minnesota -4.5
• Mavericks vs. Timberwolves over/under: 207
• Mavericks vs. Timberwolves money line: Minnesota -189, Dallas +157
• DAL: The Mavs are 31-16 against the spread in road games this season.
• MIN: The Timberwolves are 8-3 ATS in the playoffs this season.
• Mavericks vs. Timberwolves picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Timberwolves can cover

A big part of Minnesota’s success stems from a belief system that coach Chris Finch says he started instilling in his young team early in the season. He says he encouraged the players to disregard observers who said the team was likely a year or two away from competing for a title, thus giving them a built-in reason for settling for mediocrity. Finch also pointed out that this is an era of parity for the NBA and, for the sixth consecutive season, the league is guaranteed to have a new champion.

“This league’s wide open. We’re not in a dynastic period,” Finch told the media. “As proven, there’s going to be a new NBA champion this year. So everything’s still in play, but there’s a long, long way to go.”

Finch, who was a relatively unknown assistant coach with the Rockets and Raptors before getting the head job with Minnesota, now has a record of 160-127 at the helm of the Timberwolves and has led them to the playoffs in each of his first three full seasons. See which team to pick here.

Why the Mavericks can cover

While the Timberwolves earned more headlines for their drama-filled triumph over the defending NBA champion Nuggets, the Mavericks quietly dispatched of the top-seeded club in the Western Conference in six games while showing plenty of resilience of their own. Similar to the Timberwolves, the battle-tested Mavericks won two road games in a difficult environment and avoided having to win a third road game with a memorable Game 6 comeback. They trailed by 17 at halftime and nine entering the fourth quarter before launching a fourth-quarter rally that involved contributions from multiple players.

Luka Doncic ended up with a triple double behind 29 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. Forward P.J. Washington hit the first two of three free throws with 2.5 seconds left for the winning margin before intentionally missing the third and leaving the Thunder, who were out of timeouts, with no options other than a desperate have beyond half court. Derrick Jones Jr. added a career playoff-high 22 points. See which team to pick here.

How to make Mavericks vs. Timberwolves picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting 210 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can only get the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Timberwolves, and which side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,800 on its NBA picks this seasonand find out.